CHAPTER V RESIDENT DEMOGRAPHICS AND ECONOMIC PROFILE

Introduction

This chapter provides a statistical and descriptive profile of the population of Brookline, including significant features of historical and future growth, as well as of the businesses which operate in Town. The population data used here are derived primarily from the 1990 United States Census. While the U.S. Census data is somewhat dated at the time of this writing, more recent statistical information from state, regional and local sources is used where possible. Economic data sources include the New Hampshire Departments of Employment Security, Resources and Economic Development, and Revenue Administration

This chapter provides the base upon which the balance of this plan rests -- its assumptions and projections determine how much growth in population and industry is expected, and thus, how much should be accommodated in land use regulations and community facilities planning.

Population Growth

Brookline's population has increased rapidly since 1960, while before then, the Town experienced minor fluctuations in the absolute count of persons. The following table summarizes the Town's population growth since 1890 in relation to regional, county, state, and national growth rates.

TABLE V-1 POPULATION GROWTH 1880-1980 BROOKLINE, NRPC REGION, HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY, NEW HAMPSHIRE, U.S.A.

Percent NRPC Percent Hillsborough Percent State of Percent Percent Year Brookline Change Region Change County Change N.H. Change U.S.A. Change

FIGURE V-1 BROOKLINE POPULATION GROWTH 1890-1990

1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

Population Growth 1960-1990

Table V-2 below shows the growth of Nashua Regional Planning Commission (NRPC) communities since 1960. As you can see, the region as a whole grew extremely fast in each decade, but the growth rate has steadily declined. Like many communities in Southern New Hampshire, Brookline experienced rapid growth in population from 1960 to 1990, increasing by over 1,600 persons in that thirty-year period. From 1960 to 1970 Brookline's population increased

46.8 percent, from 1970 to 1980 it increased 51.3 percent, and from 1980 to 1990 it grew by 36.5 percent. While the growth rate in Town appears to have slowed in the 1980’s, note that Brookline had the third highest increase in that decade and that the average annual rate has steadily increased from the 1960s.

SOURCE: U.S. Census

Population Growth Since 1990

Since 1990, Brookline has continued to grow while growth in most other communities has leveled off. The New Hampshire Office of State Planning's (OSP) 1996 estimate of the Town's population is 3,128, indicating 29.8 percent growth in the past 6 years -- representing approximately 5 percent growth annually (Table V-3). Brookline was the undisputed regional leader in population growth during this period.

1990 1996 % Change Municipality Population Population 1990-96

SOURCE: U.S. Census; Office of State Planning Annual Population Estimates

Population growth in a community may be attributed to two factors: natural population increase due to more births than deaths, and increases caused by more persons taking up residence in town than those who move away (net in-migration). While we cannot count in-migrants, by recording the natural population growth and subtracting it from the total growth in population we can calculate how much of the Town's growth is due to in-migration. Brookline birth and death data since 1970 is provided in Table V-4. It is evident that the net increase, or natural growth, in population is growing rapidly, especially since 1990.

Net Total Year Births Deaths Increase Population

SOURCE: N.H. Division of Public Health Services Vital Statistics; U.S. Census

A brief analysis of vital statistics recorded by the State from 1980 through 1990 indicates that the Town of Brookline had a net natural population increase of 220 persons (326 births - 106 deaths = 220 net increase) (Table V-5). The U.S. Census Bureau reported a total population increase of 644 persons in Brookline over the same period. Thus, we can see that of the 644 new residents between 1980 and 1990, 220, or 34.2 percent, can be attributed to natural population growth while the balance, 424 persons, or 65.8 percent of population growth between 1980 and 1990, can be attributed to net in-migration to the Town. The same figures from 1970 to 1980 were

25.2 and 74.8 percent respectively, which indicates that natural population growth is becoming a stronger influence in overall growth, but in-migration is still the dominant factor. This conclusion is supported by the fact that Brookline posted the third highest in-migration rate of all communities in the region.

This figure of 66 percent of growth due to in-migration may be of little predictive value because the extent of future in-migration will be a function of both the availability of housing in Town and jobs within the region. And these two factors are most influenced by national economic conditions, although the Planning Board can have some impact on the local housing supply. Unfortunately, we are unable to predict future population growth solely on the basis of prior in-migration trends. However, it is reasonable to suggest that as the national economy grows, housing starts and employment opportunities will both increase locally and regionally; thus, in-migration and population growth will continue at a relatively high rate. If the national economy does not continue to grow, both the local and regional economies may also suffer.

SOURCE: NRPC using natural growth data from N.H. Division of Public Health Services; U.S. Census

Population Growth Projections

The task of projecting future population growth in a community such as Brookline is extremely uncertain for a number of reasons. Brookline has a relatively small population currently residing in a community with a large proportion of vacant developable land (see the Land Use Chapter for more detail on the amount of vacant developable land). There is the potential for significant subdivision activity to occur. There are also many factors which influence the rate of growth in Brookline which are relatively unpredictable and beyond the control of the Town. Because of this large growth potential and the unpredictable nature of other growth factors, an accurate projection of future population for a given future date is uncertain at best.

With these caveats in mind, and because it is essential that the Master Plan identify reasonable expectations of future growth in population, the following projections prepared by the New Hampshire Office of State Planning (OSP) in consultation with the Nashua Regional Planning Commission (NRPC) represent the best professional judgment of future growth within Town (Table V-6 and Figure V-3).

It is important to note that the farther away the target projection year is, the less reliable a projection will be due to unforseen circumstances which will inevitably occur in the future. OSP’s projections since 1981 have historically been very accurate within the short-term, overestimating population by an average of only three percent within five years and underestimating by eight percent within ten years. However, the longer-term estimates for a fifteen year span have proven less accurate by underestimating growth by approximately 28 percent. OSP did not anticipate the growth which Brookline has experienced in recent years, but has taken that factor into account in its most recent estimates. These points should be kept in mind when using the following figures.

The methodology used to devise these numbers is based on a community’s historical share of the county’s growth. The principal assumption with this method is that trends of a community’s population growth will remain about the same relative to the parent county in the future. For towns like Brookline which increased its share of total county population from 1970 to 1990, the rate of increase in county share was applied on a declining basis through the projection period. The resulting figures were then modified based on professional knowledge of the Town and area by the NRPC.

Strong growth is expected to continue through the end of the decade, and as the base population grows, the Town’s growth rate will decline steadily until the year 2020. However, as shown in Table V-7 and Figure V-4, Brookline still will far outpace any other community in the region by growing at an average annual rate of 6.9 percent.

TABLE V-6 POPULATION PROJECTIONS TOWN OF BROOKLINE, 1996-2020

Projected Year Population % Change

SOURCE: NH Office of State Planning, Annual Population Projections, October 1997

FIGURE V-3 BROOKLINE POPULATION PROJECTIONS 1990-2020

9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0

1990 1996 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

1990 Estimated Projected Population Avg. Annual

Total 171,478 182,020 193,853 207,615 216,910 231,836 246,436 1.5%

SOURCE: NH Office of State Planning, Annual Population Projections, October 1997

Population Density

Population density is also an instructive indicator of the growth of the Town. This statistic is calculated by dividing the number of persons residing in town by the total town area. Since Brookline is 20.1 square miles and the estimated 1996 population is 3,128 persons, the Town currently holds 156 persons per square mile. It is evident from figure V-4 that density has grown sharply since 1970.

However, compared to other communities in the region and the region as a whole, Brookline may still be characterized as a relatively low-density environment (Table V-8).

Area Density Density Density Density Municipality (Sq.Miles) 1970 1980 1990 1996

TABLE V-8 POPULATION DENSITY NRPC REGION, 1970-1996

Amherst	34.5	133.5	238.9	262.8	280.1
Brookline	20.1	58.1	87.9	119.9	155.6
Hollis	32.6	80.2	143.5	175.0	198.8
Hudson	29.2	364.3	480.2	668.8	721.6
Litchfield	15.1	94.0	274.8	365.3	433.1
Lyndeborough	30.6	25.8	35.0	42.3	46.2
Merrimack	33.0	260.5	466.8	671.4	703.0
Milford	25.9	255.7	335.3	455.4	488.8
Mont Vernon	16.8	53.9	86.0	107.9	116.7
Nashua	30.6	1824.2	2217.8	2603.3	2689.1
Pelham	26.7	202.5	303.0	352.4	388.5
Wilton	26.1	87.2	102.3	119.6	124.3
NRPC Region	321.2	314.0	429.9	533.9	566.7
Hillsborough Co.	876.0	255.6	315.8	383.6	404.5
State of N.H.	8993.0	82.0	102.4	123.3	129.2

CHARACTERISTICS OF THE POPULATION

Age Distribution

An examination of the age distribution of the population of the community can reveal the needs of the community and help plan for the future. For example, a high percentage of children under age four can indicate the need for school expansion, and can be used to help program recreational opportunities within the community.

Table V-9 and figures V-6 and V-7 show the historical trends of age distribution in Brookline. This data clearly indicates the decrease in 5-17 year olds from 1970 to 1990. This decline is partially a reflection of the few births during the late 1970s and early 1980s. The largest component increase has been in the 18-44 year olds, which comprise most first-time homebuyers and about half of the labor force, reflecting the strong growing economy in the southern New Hampshire region from 1970 to 1990.

		TABLE V-9
	AGE DISTRIBUTIONS, 1970-1990
Age	1970	%	1980	%	1990	%
0-4	123	10.5%	119	6.7%	228	9.5%
5-17	368	31.5%	464	26.3%	453	18.8%
18-44	378	32.4%	769	43.5%	1,170	48.5%
45-64	204	17.5%	284	16.1%	394	16.3%
65+	94	8.1%	130	7.4%	165	6.8%

Total 1,167 100.0% 1,766 100.0% 2,410 100.0%

SOURCE: U.S. Census

SOURCE: U.S. Census.

Pre School Age Population

This is one of the largest increasing components of the population, nearly doubling since 1980. A census conducted by town officials in 1996 found a total of 324 preschool children residing in Brookline, which is an increase of 42 percent since 1990 (Table V-10). This has major ramifications for the future, as school expansions will possibly need to be considered. The Town should anticipate the 0-4 year olds going through the school system.

School Age Population

As you can see from the previous figures, the percent of children in this category has decreased in each decade from 1970 to 1990. However, this age category grew by nearly 45 percent from 1990 to 1996, reaching 655 students enrolled in elementary through high school. This growth may help to explain recent capacity concerns in the school system.

TABLE V-10 SCHOOL-AGE POPULATION TOWN OF BROOKLINE, 1996

Number		Percent
Preschool	324	30.0%
Elementary	414	45.5%
Junior High	87	8.3%
High School	154	16.1%
Total	1,079	100.0%

SOURCE: School district enrollment data, Town of Brookline census

Working Age Population

The most recent data for non-school age Brookline residents is from the 1990 U.S. Census shown in Table V-9. Note that the largest increase in any age category is in the number of 18 to 44 year olds; this group comprised 1,170 persons or nearly half of Brookline’s population in 1990. This together with the 45-64 year olds is generally considered to be the labor force. This data may indicate that many people live in Brookline during their "working" years, and then retire elsewhere.

In addition, the 18-44 age category is generally considered to be the child-bearing years for women. Of the 1,170 residents in this age category, 584, or 49.9% are women. This information would indicate that the number of births in Town would increase in the early 1990s, which has been verified in the previous section.

Elderly Population

The number of people in the age category has nearly doubled since 1970, however, the percentage of the overall population has dropped steadily. Only 165 residents, or 7 percent of the population, were considered elderly in 1990. The small percentage of senior citizens reflects the large number of young in-migrants to Brookline.

Regional Comparison

Table V-11 shows the Brookline age distribution in 1990 compared to that of other local communities. This better illustrates the high percentage of 0-4 year olds and the low percentage of elderly. Part of this can be attributed to the type of housing stock available in Town. The large number of 3 and 4 bedroom single family homes are better suited to young families than elderly.

Brookline has the second highest percentage of 0-4 year olds. This percentage has remained high as the number of births has increased over the past three years. The number of 5-19 year olds was the third lowest in 1990. But as the high number of 0-4 year olds get older, Brookline can anticipate an increasing percentage of 5-19 year olds.

0-4 5-19 20-34 35-64 65+

TABLE V-11 AGE DISTRIBUTION NRPC REGION, 1990

Amherst	6.7%	25.0%	16.5%	45.8%	5.9%
Brookline	9.5%	21.4%	25.0%	37.3%	6.8%
Hollis	6.9%	22.6%	16.9%	44.9%	8.6%
Hudson	8.6%	21.3%	28.4%	35.2%	6.5%
Litchfield	10.4%	25.7%	26.2%	34.6%	3.1%
Lyndeborough	8.0%	24.2%	19.5%	40.3%	8.0%
Merrimack	8.6%	23.4%	26.5%	36.9%	4.7%
Milford	8.9%	20.0%	29.1%	31.8%	10.3%
Mont Vernon	8.3%	24.0%	19.5%	40.1%	8.1%
Nashua	8.1%	18.6%	29.6%	33.7%	10.1%
Pelham	7.6%	24.5%	24.2%	37.3%	6.5%
Wilton	8.0%	22.0%	22.4%	37.2%	10.4%
NRPC Region	8.2%	20.8%	27.1%	35.7%	8.2%
Hillsborough Co.	8.1%	20.4%	27.1%	34.2%	10.2%
State of N.H.	7.6%	20.6%	25.9%	34.5%	11.3%

Source: U.S. Census

Education

The education levels of a population were formerly measured by the median number of school years completed by persons over 18 years of age (median is the point above and below which 50 percent of respondents fall). In Brookline, the median education level was 12.1 years in 1960, and 12.3 years in 1970. Starting in 1980, the U.S. Census began providing the number of residents categorized by years of schooling. This data is provided in Table V-12. The town’s population is becoming increasingly more well-educated, as the number of residents lacking a high school degree has dropped while those possessing post-secondary education has grown. Compared to the regional average in Table V-13, Brookline residents generally have completed more coursework past high school than residents of other communities. Most notable are the number of Brookliners who hold a graduate/professional degree, ranking third in the region.

TABLE V-12
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
TOWN OF BROOKLINE, 1980-1990
Years of	1980		1990
Schooling*	Number	Percent	Number	Percent

Total Population Age 18+	1,175	100.0%	1,729	100.0%
No High School Degree	265	22.6%	192	11.1%
High School Graduate	391	33.3%	484	28.0%
Some College, No Degree	271	23.1%	363	21.0%
Associate's Degree	n/a	n/a	175	10.1%
Bachelor's Degree	170	14.5%	340	19.7%
Graduate or Professional Degree	78	6.6%	176	10.2%
* Persons over 18 years of age

Source: U.S. Census

No High High School Some Coll. Associate's Bachelor's Graduate/ Municipality School Degree Graduate No Degree Degree Degree Prof. Degree

TABLE V-13 EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT NRPC REGION, 1990

Amherst	7.0%	20.0%	19.0%	10.0%	28.0%	16.0%
Brookline	11.0%	28.0%	21.0%	10.0%	20.0%	10.0%
Hollis	11.0%	18.0%	22.0%	8.0%	27.0%	15.0%
Hudson	16.0%	31.0%	21.0%	10.0%	17.0%	6.0%
Litchfield	11.0%	33.0%	22.0%	9.0%	20.0%	6.0%
Lyndeborough	10.0%	26.0%	24.0%	10.0%	21.0%	8.0%
Merrimack	10.0%	27.0%	23.0%	10.0%	22.0%	8.0%
Milford	16.0%	35.0%	20.0%	8.0%	16.0%	5.0%
Mont Vernon	13.0%	24.0%	23.0%	9.0%	22.0%	9.0%
Nashua	18.0%	27.0%	20.0%	8.0%	19.0%	8.0%
Pelham	19.0%	35.0%	18.0%	9.0%	14.0%	5.0%
Wilton	16.0%	33.0%	18.0%	7.0%	19.0%	8.0%
NRPC Region	16.0%	28.0%	20.0%	9.0%	20.0%	8.0%
Source: U.S. Census

Ethnicity and Gender

Figures V-9 and V-10 demonstrate that Brookline in 1990 was an ethnically homogeneous community evenly split by gender. While a significantly lower proportion of Brookline residents are minorities (2.1 percent) than the regional average (5.1 percent), the ethnic patterns are fairly consistent with the regional and state profile.

Source: U.S. Census

Source: U.S. Census

Persons with Disabilities

A total of 107 Brookline residents above the age of 16 in 1990 were disabled. Nearly two-thirds of these people were disabled as a result of their job (Table V-14). These residents comprise

4.4 percent of the total Town population, which was lower than the regional average of 7.4% in 1990 (Table V-15).

TABLE V-14 PERSONS WITH DISABILITIES: AGE 16 AND ABOVE TOWN OF BROOKLINE, 1990

Age 16-64		% of Age 65+			% of
#		Age	#		Age
		Group			Group
Work Disability	68	4.0%		n/a	n/a
Mobility/Self Care Limit.	19	1.1%		20	12.1%
No Disability	1,593	94.8%		145	87.9%

Total Population 1,680 100.0% 165 100.0%

Source: U.S. Census

Mobility/Self Mobility/Self Work Disability Care Limit. Care Limit. Total % of Total Age 16-64 Age 16-64 Age 65+ Disabled Population

TABLE V-15 PERSONS WITH DISABILITIES: AGE 16 AND ABOVE NRPC REGION, 1990

Amherst	262	114	71	447	4.9%
Brookline	68	19	20	107	4.4%
Hollis	124	40	55	219	3.8%
Hudson	812	363	195	1,370	7.0%
Litchfield	130	111	20	261	4.7%
Lyndeborough	76	13	14	103	8.0%
Merrimack	782	339	118	1,239	5.6%
Milford	542	195	108	845	7.2%
Mont Vernon	53	24	39	116	6.4%
Nashua	3,914	1,471	1,518	6,903	8.7%
Pelham	363	164	83	610	6.5%
Wilton	241	96	57	394	12.6%
NRPC Region	7,367	2,949	2,298	12,614	7.4%
Hillsborough Co.	15,616	6,529	5,780	27,925	8.3%
State of N.H.	26,825	20,035	19,675	66,535	6.0%
		Source: U.S. Census
Income

Income is generally measured by three indicators: median family income, median household income, and per capital income. Median family income is defined as the total money income received in the calendar year divided by all family members 15 years of age and older. Median household income is the total money income received in the calendar year divided by all household members 15 years old and over. Family income differs from household income by excluding income received by household members not related to the householder, persons living alone and others in nonfamily households. Per capita income is the mean income computed for every man, woman and child in a community, and is derived by dividing the total income by total population.

The Town of Brookline may be characterized as relatively affluent, as the median family income in 1989 (most recent data available) was $57,372 (Table V-16, Figure V-11), which ranked third in the region. Residents enjoyed the second-highest income growth in the region in the decade since 1979 (Table V-17).

TABLE V-16 INCOME TOWN OF BROOKLINE, 1979-1989

1979		1989	%
			Change
Median Family	$23,608.00	$57,372.00	143.0%
Median Household	$22,545.00	$55,858.00	147.8%
Per Capita	$7,528.00	$19,564.00	159.9%

Source: U.S. Census

Source: U.S. Census

1979 1989 % Change

TABLE V-17 INCOME GROWTH NRPC REGION, 1979-1989

Amherst	$32,469 $66,491	104.8%
Brookline	$23,608 $57,372	143.0%
Hollis	$27,485 $68,096	147.8%
Hudson	$23,670 $50,714	114.3%
Litchfield	$23,551 $52,438	122.7%
Lyndeborough	$21,176 $46,250	118.4%
Merrimack	$25,443 $55,844	119.5%
Milford	$19,082 $43,628	128.6%
Mont Vernon	$22,326 $52,740	136.2%
Nashua	$22,003 $46,614	111.9%
Pelham	$23,967 $51,147	113.4%
Wilton	$18,117 $39,402	117.5%
NRPC Region	$23,575 $52,561	123.0%
Hillsborough Co. $21,483 $46,249		115.3%
State of N.H.	$19,723 $41,628	111.1%
	Source: U.S. Census
	FIGURE V-11
	INCOME GROWTH
NRPC REGION, 1979-1989

Source: U.S. Census

Brookline Economic Profile

This section provides an overview of the businesses which currently operate in town. As is evident in Table V-18, major employers in town represent a wide variety of industries. Local government, industrial concerns and service establishments are important players in the town’s economy.

TABLE V-18 MAJOR EMPLOYERS TOWN OF BROOKLINE, 1995

Product/ Name Location Service

Town of Brookline	1 Main St.	Government
Bingham Lumber	89 Route 13	Lumber
Brookline Elementary School	22 Milford St.	Education
Grant Plastics	86 Route 13	Plastics
Hall Manufacturing, Inc.	56 Milford St.	Sewn Products
Donovan Engineering	31 Route 13	Piping, conveyors
Route 13 State Line Mart	44 Route 13	Convenience store
Superior Steel Fabricators	46 Route 13	Steel fabricators
Belleview	55 Route 13	Plastics
Griffings Riverside	Route 13	Restaurant

* Major = 10 or more employees

American Business Disc, American Business Info., 1995 Edition Community Profiles, N.H. Department of Resources & Economic Development, December 1995

A total of 62 private companies conducted business in town in 1995, employing nearly 500 workers (Table V-19). Government employment accounted for an additional 78 employees. Non-manufacturing enterprises accounted for the majority of the town’s employment and total wages, while workers in the manufacturing sector earned considerably more in weekly wages than their counterparts in the non-manufacturing and government sectors.

TABLE V-19 EMPLOYMENT TOWN OF BROOKLINE, 1995

Manufacturing Non-Manufacturing Government Total

# Businesses	10	52	n/a	62
# Employees	136	352	78	566
Total Wages	$3,885,214.00	$7,190,525.00	$1,346,391.00	$12,422,130
Avg. Weekly Wage	$551.07	$392.84	$331.24	$422.25
Source: N.H. Department of Employment Security

Business growth has been strong in the ten-year period from 1985 to 1995, as the number of people working for private companies in Town doubled in that period (Table V-20). No comparable data was collected for government employment in 1985 or 1990. Nearly all of the business growth was in the non-manufacturing sector (Figure V-12). Total wages earned by Brookline workers also grew at a brisk pace, but weekly wage growth as a whole slowed from 1990 to 1995, particularly in the non-manufacturing sector (Figure V-13).

% Change % Change 1985 1990 1985-90 1995 1990-1995

TABLE V-20 PRVATE EMPLOYMENT* TOWN OF BROOKLINE, 1985 - 1995

# Private Businesses
Manufacturing				7	9	28.6%	10	11.1%
Non-Manufacturing				33	44	33.3%	52	18.2%
Total				40	53	32.5%	62	17.0%
# Employees
Manufacturing			85		98	15.3%	136	38.8%
Non-Manufacturing			161		247	53.4%	352	42.5%
Total			246		345	40.2%	488	41.4%
Total Wages
Manufacturing	$1,356,844.00				$2,087,254.00	53.8%	$3,885,214.00	86.1%
Non-Manufacturing	$2,530,899.00				$5,383,017.00	112.7%	$7,190,525.00	33.6%
Total	$3,887,743.00				$7,470,271.00	92.1%	$11,075,739.00	48.3%
Average Weekly Wages
Manufacturing		$306.98			$408.54	33.1%	$551.07	34.9%
Non-Manufacturing		$302.31			$418.82	38.5%	$392.84	-6.2%
Total		$303.92			$415.90	36.8%	$436.84	5.0%
* Does not include government employment
Source: N.H. Department of Employment Security

FIGURE V-13 CHANGE IN AVERAGE WEEKLY WAGES TOWN OF BROOKLINE, 1990 - 1995

On a regional basis, Brookline does not compare favorably to other communities in terms of economic activity (Table V-21, Figure V-14). The Town accounted for only one percent of regional employment in 1995. While Brookline may reasonably be expected to attract less economic activity than communities such as Nashua or Hudson, Brookline even lags behind other comparable towns such as Hollis, Wilton and Amherst.

# Private Total Municipality Businesses % of Region Employment* % of Region

TABLE V-21 PERCENTAGE OF REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT BY COMMUNITY NRPC REGION, 1995

Amherst	394	8.0%	3,700	4.4%
Brookline	62	1.3%	566	0.7%
Hollis	168	3.4%	1,850	2.2%
Hudson	546	11.1%	10,267	12.3%
Litchfield	49	1.0%	463	0.6%
Lyndeborough	19	0.4%	99	0.1%
Merrimack	542	11.0%	9,924	11.9%
Milford	371	7.5%	6,051	7.3%
Mont Vernon	17	0.3%	107	0.1%
Nashua	2,470	50.2%	46,969	56.4%
Pelham	182	3.7%	1,538	1.8%
Wilton	98	2.0%	1,804	2.2%
NRPC Region	4,918	100.0%	83,338	100.0%
Hillsborough Co.	9,951		151,322
State of N.H.	34,914		457,542

* Includes government employment Source: N.H. Department of Employment Security

Owing to its relatively small base of employment, employment growth in Brookline ranked second in the region from 1990 to 1995 (Table V-22, Figure V-15). This positive trend indicates that the town possesses assets which are attractive to some companies which have chosen to expand or relocate.

1985 1990 % Growth 1995 % Growth Municipality # Employees # Employees 1985-90 # Employees 1990-95

TABLE V-22 PRVATE EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY COMMUNITY* NRPC REGION, 1985 - 1995

Amherst	2,660	2,694	1.3%	3,700	37.3%
Brookline	246	345	40.2%	566	64.1%
Hollis	744	1,277	71.6%	1,850	44.9%
Hudson	7,221	8,438	16.9%	10,267	21.7%
Litchfield	169	303	79.3%	463	52.8%
Lyndeborough	46	53	15.2%	99	86.8%
Merrimack	10,606	11,044	4.1%	9,924	-10.1%
Milford	4,480	4,905	9.5%	6,051	23.4%
Mont Vernon	57	67	17.5%	107	59.7%
Nashua	44,529	42,909	-3.6%	46,969	9.5%
Pelham	1,423	1,370	-3.7%	1,538	12.3%
Wilton	1,355	1,366	0.8%	1,804	32.1%
NRPC Region	73,536	74,771	1.7%	83,338	11.5%
Hillsborough Co.	147,870	148,706	0.6%	151,322	1.8%
State of N.H.	400,338	429,529	7.3%	457,542	6.5%
* Does not include government employment
Source: N.H. Department of Employment Security

It is also evident in Table V-23 that workers account for only a slight percentage of total wages in the region, and that they earn significantly less than their counterparts in other communities (Figure V-16). The average weekly wage of $422 in 1995 represented only 83 percent of the average regional wage. This statistic may point to the need to attract companies offering higher wage potential.

TABLE V-23
WAGES BY COMMUNITY
NRPC REGION, 1995
Avg. Weekly				% of Reg.
Municipality	Total Wages	% of Region	Wage	Average
Amherst	$113,317,487	4.4%	$588.93	115.3%
Brookline	$12,422,130	0.5%	$422.25	82.6%
Hollis	$56,119,016	2.2%	$583.52	114.2%
Hudson	$328,963,451	12.8%	$616.17	120.6%
Litchfield	$9,305,651	0.4%	$386.51	75.6%
Lyndeborough	$2,565,048	0.1%	$496.17	97.1%
Merrimack	$373,882,140	14.5%	$724.53	141.8%
Milford	$154,829,085	6.0%	$492.08	96.3%
Mont Vernon	$1,894,855	0.1%	$340.29	66.6%
Nashua	$1,447,533,860	56.1%	$592.67	116.0%
Pelham	$33,352,719	1.3%	$417.17	81.6%
Wilton	$44,187,074	1.7%	$471.17	92.2%
NRPC Region	$2,578,372,516	100.0%	$510.96	100.0%
Hillsborough Co.	$4,971,385,428		$569.34
State of N.H.	$13,976,916,051		$509.83
Source: N.H. Department of Employment Security
FIGURE V-16
AVERAGE WEEKLY WAGE
NRPC COMMUNITIES, 1995

A related measure of the economic health of Brookline is its tax rate. A common concern raised at the Town’s Community Profile was the burdensome residential property tax rate, and the need to balance commercial with residential growth. Table V-24 and Figure V-17 show local assessed valuation, which is the total value of all land and improvements in town; the local tax rate, calculated from the town’s Statement of Appropriations and Taxes Assessed (MS-2 form) and the Summary Inventory of Valuation (MS-1 form); and the full-value tax rate, which is the local tax rate multiplied by the annual assessment ratio (assessed vs. market value).

The overall tax base of the Town has been increasing regularly over the last several years, yet the tax rate has also increased. This increase may be attributed to inflationary factors as well as service demand costs of new development outpacing its benefit to the tax base. Most of the development that occurs in Brookline is single-family residences, which often fail to generate sufficient tax revenue to balance the costs generated, especially for school services. It is important to note that the full value rate decreased twice within the last seven years, once in 1993 after the Town’s assessed value was adjusted, and again in 1996.

TABLE V-24 TAX RATE TOWN OF BROOKLINE, 1989 - 1996

Net Local Local % Change Assessment Full Value % Change Year Assessed Valuation Tax Rate Local Tax Rate Ratio Tax Rate F.V. Tax Rate

1989	$166,887,103	$18.15		1.05	$19.06
1990	$172,540,047	$18.08	-0.4%	1.23	$22.24	16.7%
1991	$177,440,974	$17.40	-3.8%	1.34	$23.32	4.9%
1992	$186,377,373	$18.16	4.4%	1.48	$26.88	15.3%
1993	$141,150,266	$25.54	40.6%	0.99	$25.28	-6.0%
1994	$145,188,239	$28.74	12.5%	0.93	$26.73	5.7%
1995	$151,409,450	$30.89	7.5%	0.95	$29.35	9.8%
1996	$160,632,984	$30.92	0.1%	0.93	$28.76	-2.0%
Source: N.H. Department of Revenue Administration
FIGURE V-17
FULL VALUE TAX RATE
TOWN OF BROOKLINE, 1989 - 1996

Despite the growth in Brookline’s tax rate, the Town compares favorably with other communities in the region (Table V-25, Figure V-18). The town’s local rate is higher, but the full value rate is lower, than the county average.

Local Percent of Full Value Percent of Tax Rate County Rate Tax Rate County Rate

TABLE V-25 TAX RATES BY COMMUNITY NRPC REGION, 1996

Amherst	$28.36	99%	$27.23	88%
Brookline	$30.92	107%	$28.76	93%
Hollis	$24.33	85%	$24.82	81%
Hudson	$25.62	89%	$28.69	93%
Litchfield	$24.83	86%	$32.78	106%
Lyndeborough	$42.00	146%	$31.08	101%
Merrimack	$32.19	112%	$30.90	100%
Milford	$25.70	89%	$34.44	112%
Mont Vernon	$24.80	86%	$29.76	97%
Nashua	$30.20	105%	$29.90	97%
Pelham	$47.18	164%	$26.42	86%
Wilton	$44.50	155%	$25.81	84%
Hillsborough Co.	$28.79	100%	$30.81	100%
	Source: N.H.Department of Revenue

GROWTH MANAGEMENT

The Town of Brookline adopted a Growth Management Ordinance in 1994 to “flatten the rate of growth in the Town” for the following reasons:

; To meet the demand for schools. ; Prevent an unacceptably high growth in the tax rate. ; Allow the Town an opportunity to absorb increases in Town services in an orderly way. ; Insure that Brookline accommodates a fair share of the regional population growth.

The ordinance was based on an analysis of growth data in the 1990 Brookline Master Plan, which recommended an annual growth rate “cap” of three percent. The overall goal is to slow growth to no more than three percent by limiting the number of building permits for the construction of new residential dwelling units that may be issued in any calendar year. This permit limitation does not apply to lots existing before November 24, 1993 or to non-residential or alteration permits.

The Planning Board determines the number of annual permits based on a calculation which compares the actual number of units in Town to the target number of units, but in no case is the annual allotment less than ten. New subdivisions are guaranteed a minimum number of permits based on their size, and the remaining permits are distributed quarterly on a one-for-one basis. The Board must annually review the Town’s growth data and determine if that data justifies continuation of the ordinance for an additional year.

Based on data and analysis contained in this chapter, the Growth Management Ordinance is still considered necessary for the following reasons:

; Brookline has absorbed more than its fair share of the growth in the 1980s and 1990s, showing high rates of growth relative to other communities in the region. The Town has been the undisputed leader in population growth since 1990, growing by nearly 30 percent during that period.

; The Office of State Planning has estimated that Brookline will grow faster than any other

community in the region, at nearly 7 percent annually until the year 2020. ; The preschool age population has grown by 42 percent since 1990. ; School enrollment figures as of October, 1997 indicate that the Brookline Elementary School is

currently at 80 percent of capacity; the Hollis/Brookline Junior High School is at 73 percent of capacity; and the newly constructed Hollis/Brookline Senior High School is already over capacity. Based on future enrollment projections, capacity is anticipated to be reached in the year 2005 in the Brookline Elementary School and 2003 in the Junior High, while capacity constraints are obviously already a concern in the newly constructed Hollis-Brookline High School.

; The number of housing units in Town grew by 43 percent since 1990, by far the highest rate of growth in the region. Nearly all of this growth was comprised of single-family homes. ; Brookline issued an average of 37 building permits annually in the 1980s. Brookline is issuing an average of 57 building permits annually thus far in the 1990s. ; Based on the average household size of 2.97 in 1990, issuing 57 permits per year will result in a

5.4 percent growth rate annually. This is a higher growth rate than any community in the region.

; Brookline issued a higher number of building permits in 1996 relative to its population than any community in the region. The average percentage issued was 1.82 percent of the population, compared to a regional average of .49 percent. If Brookline had issued that percentage, 15 permits would have been issued in 1996.

; As of October, 1997, there were a total of 68 lots with approval for development remaining undeveloped, 13 phased lots which could draw building permits, and an indeterminate number of vacant lots of record.

; Brookline can grow at 3 percent annually (94 people), which would still be faster than the

O.S.P. projections for all but three communities inthe Nashua region and twice as fast as the regional average. This would allow the Town time to prepare adequate facilities and prepare for future growth.

Growth Management Recommendations

1. Actions need to be taken in order to accommodate the growth while minimizing the impact on the tax rate. One of these actions must include an updated CIP, which programs the costs of capital projects as evenly as possible.
2. Another part of the solution is to time the growth so that the improvements can come further along in the future, allowing the Town more time to accommodate the growth. By limiting the number of building permits which can be issued annually, the Planning Board can help moderate the growth in school enrollments.
3. Phasing plans should be required for all major subdivisions. This would ensure slow, steady growth. This would allow both the Planning Board and School Board to anticipate the growth in Town.
4. The Planning Board should begin to look beyond the lifetime of the Growth Management Ordinance and consider other alternatives for managing growth.

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